(iPoster) Patterns of Cooperation and Public Opinion on Rapprochement

• In Event: Poster Session: Security and the Politics of Military Cooperation

Abstract

How do publics respond to cooperation from a foreign adversary during rapprochement? Previous research has mainly focused on individual cooperative signals during the process, often neglecting the significance of their broader patterns across time. Our study fills this gap by exploring how different patterns of cooperation shape public opinion on the peace-making process. We argue that the patterns suggesting an adversary’s continuous or further cooperation increase public support for rapprochement and conciliation. To test our theoretical expectation, we employ both hypothetical and history-selective survey experiments in the United States. We find that individuals who learn about the adversary's consistently increasing cooperative trends are more likely to view the country as a trustworthy partner, leading them to support conciliatory policies. Conversely, they are inclined to oppose peace when the patterns of cooperation are inconsistent or show a declining trend. The findings offer an explanation for why many rapprochement efforts fail to gain domestic support, even when initiated with an unexpectedly cooperative event.

Authors

• Jungmin Han, Trinity College Dublin

• Thomas Chadefaux, Trinity College Dublin