(iPoster) Running from Behind? Biased Polling and Campaign Engagement

• In Event: Poster Session: Legislative Studies & Politics in the American States
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Legislative Studies

Abstract

If candidates want to manipulate voter beliefs about the election itself, should they claim to be ahead, tied or behind in the polls? Using a formal model I show that candidate's choice of polling claims is shaped by their ability to target voters and voter beliefs. If candidates can only target their base, they release polls which makes the election appear competitive---this entails claiming to be behind (ahead) when your voters believe you are ahead (behind). If candidates cannot target their base exclusively, one candidate confirms voter prior beliefs to make the election appear uncompetitive while the other tries to make the election appear competitive. With campaign email data from the 2020 election, I show candidates make claims about their polling in order to make elections appear competitive.

Author

• Liam Bethlendy, Stanford University