(iPoster) Third Party Perceptions of War and Violations of Laws of War

• In Event: Poster Session: South Asian Politics & Economics, Information Warfare, and Conflict Management
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Economics, Information Warfare, and Conflict Management

Abstract

This paper examines how countries not directly involved in wars decide which side to support diplomatically. Using a formal model, it explores the various factors influencing third party states' decisions, expanding on existing literature that typically focuses on alliances, pre-existing relationships, or material benefits. A key contribution of this paper is the incorporation of reputation costs, particularly how the potential cost of siding with a rule-breaking aggressor impacts a country’s foreign policy choices. The model explains how countries weigh the trade-offs between supporting the aggressor, the defender, or choosing neutrality, factoring in not only strategic and material benefits but also reputational concerns. The theoretical findings are applied to the case of India’s neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine war, offering insights into India's foreign policy decision-making process since 2022.

Author

• Nivedita Jhunjhunwala, University of Texas Austin