(iPoster) The Geography of Mediation: Proximity and Success in Conflict Resolutions

• In Event: Poster Session: Conflict Processes 1

Abstract

Conflict resolution is becoming increasingly complex, raising numerous questions about the factors that might facilitate its success. This study investigates the spatial dynamics of conflict mediation, the signing of peace agreements, and conflict de-escalation to understand whether the geographical distance between conflict locations and mediation events influences mediation success. Utilizing newly available PeaceRep geospatial mediation event data and Spatial Autocorrelation techniques, the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic is employed to identify and visualize hotspots of mediation events and hotspots where mediation has successfully led to the signing of peace agreements. This analysis compares regions with high concentrations of mediation activities to those where peace agreements are frequently signed, providing insights into geographical patterns and the potential efficiency of conflict resolution. In the second part of the study, the Euclidean distance between mediation event locations and conflict locations is computed. These distances are then used to model the likelihood of peace success, captured in two ways: first, as a peace agreement being signed, and second, as conflict intensity measured by the count of violent events. Preliminary results indicate that mediation events and peace agreement signings are not spatially correlated, suggesting potential inefficiencies in globally fragmented conflict resolution. Additionally, it appears that mediation events farther away are more likely to result in peace agreements, while closer mediation events to the conflict zone result in lower levels of conflict. This may be because neutrality in distant third-party locations is conducive to agreements, whereas on-the-ground mediation is more practical in actually decreasing conflict events. These findings offer important considerations for peacemakers about what constitutes effective conflict resolution.

Author

• Elisa D'Amico, University College Dublin