(iPoster) Political Consequences of Valence Events

• In Event: Poster Session: Crime, Violence, Institutions in Comparative Politics

Abstract

An increasingly large share of research in political behavior is concerned with the effects of unexpected events, such as terrorist attacks or environmental disasters, on public opinion in policy areas like immigration or climate change mitigation. Based on a series of descriptive observations, I argue that such research is often unable to reliably explain or predict the political consequences of these events, including electoral or policy changes. Instead of analyzing events that may or may not affect policy preferences, I outline a more fruitful research agenda that focuses on events directly affecting support for political actors who determine policies. Here, the most likely events to affect preferences are those that either improve or worsen an actors standing across the political spectrum, a class of events that I coin valence events. Throughout several empirical studies in Germany and the USA, including multiple unexpected event during survey designs, and six original surveys containing two vignette experiments, two forced-choice experiments, and several batteries of descriptive mechanism questions, I then demonstrate the political consequences of valence events, focusing specifically on the direct and indirect channels through which they affect public opinion, voting behavior, and policy outcomes. Taken together, the concepts and findings introduced in this study present a fresh perspective on how unexpected events influence politics and open many new avenues for research on this topic.

Author

• Joris Frese, European University Institute