(iPoster) State Electoral Competition and Perceived Integrity: Winners and Losers in U.S.

• In Event: Poster Session: Public Opinion in the United States

Abstract

How do state-level electoral competitions shape perceptions of electoral integrity, and how do these perceptions differ between winners and losers in more versus less competitive states? While the winner-loser gap theory suggests that political outcomes shape individuals’ views of electoral fairness, the role of state-level electoral competition remains underexplored. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, this study employs logistic regression models to explore the effects of state-level electoral competition on perceptions of electoral integrity. The results show that higher state-level competition is associated with lower perceptions of electoral integrity. In addition, national election winners, particularly lean Democrats in competitive states, are more likely to perceive the election process as fairer. Finally, the winner-loser gap in perceptions of electoral integrity is amplified by state-level competition across both Republican and Democratic states. These findings underscore the complexity of electoral perceptions, suggesting that both national and state-level contexts shape voter confidence in the electoral system. This study highlights the need to consider state-level factors when analyzing electoral integrity and voter confidence.

Author

• Tianhui Wu, University of Iowa