(iPoster) Networks of Influence? An Analysis of China's Multilateralism

• In Event: Poster Session: International Political Economy II

Abstract

China’s international outreach often facilitates transnational economic networks through the creation of multinational institutions and frameworks of cooperation. Among these, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) stands out as the most prominent example. Unfortunately, even though frameworks such as the BRI are multilateral, studies focusing on them have not investigated how they result in network effects that could shape outcomes among their signatories. In most studies, the BRI is analyzed by looking at bilateral economic and political dynamics between China and its partner countries (i.e. China-Myanmar and China-Kenya). In this project, I will instead investigate whether (and how) China’s multilateral frameworks promote closer economic and political linkages between their signatories (i.e. Myanmar-Kenya).

This holds significant implications for the study of China’s international influence. Indeed, if China’s international economic networks are wrongly assumed to only affect bilateral ties between China and its partners, some resulting vectors of its international influence would be incorrectly ignored. If China’s international economic ties instead significantly enhance political and economic cooperation between the states enjoying higher degrees of connectivity with China itself, the country’s international economic outreach could be seen as likely to result in more coherent and united geopolitical blocks. Understanding whether this is indeed the case is especially timely given rising narratives that China is seeking to act as the leader of the Global South in challenging the US-led existing order.

In this project, I will study the network structure of the BRI by applying network analysis to international trade data. The BRI focuses on infrastructure connectivity and creates physical infrastructure corridors facilitating trade between its signatories. Given that these corridors often connect a significant number of countries, does a state’s decision to join the initiative simply lead to greater economic linkages with China or does it also promote closer ties with other signatories? Do some states (other than China) occupy central positions in the BRI’s economic network and are some more embedded in its economic network than others? Answering these questions will help clarify whether China’s international economic networks primarily promote bilateral ties between the country and its partners or lead to additional ties between such partners as well.
I will then use the findings from the above analysis to investigate whether these network characteristics help explain China’s political influence. Several studies have found that a state’s membership in the BRI and the magnitude of its economic ties with China can lead it to privilege closer alignment with it. I will examine whether states’ varying degrees of centrality in the BRI’s economic network can offer a competing explanation. Indeed, states more embedded in the broader economic networks centered around China may develop even greater economic interests in close ties with the country than those only possessing significant bilateral economic ties with it.

Specifically, I will test whether changes in political alignment with China resulting from states joining the BRI are better explained by the resulting increase in their economic ties with China itself or by their increased embeddedness in the BRI’s broader economic network. To do so, I will use regression analyses in which calculated centrality metrics will constitute the main independent variable and UN voting data will be used as the main dependent variable. The analysis will help establish a potentially neglected mechanism behind China’s influence stemming from its international economic linkages.

On an empirical level, the project will contribute to the understanding of how China’s international influence is furthered by its international economic networks. This is key given that economic ties with China have emerged as a point of concern in many countries in recent years due to their potential to lead to undue political influence or to compromise national security. To mitigate risks associated with them, their structure and effects must, however, first be adequately understood.

This research will also contribute to an alignment between theoretical understandings and empirical investigations of international economic influence in International Relations and International Political Economy. Since Farrell & Newman’s (2019) work laying out how supply chain linkages can be weaponized by dominant states, the field has acknowledged that international economic networks are crucial in furthering the influence of certain powerful states. However, most empirical studies of economic influence continue to focus on bilateral ties. This research helps resolve this disconnect by incorporating the latest theoretical understanding of international economic structures into its research design.

Author

• Benjamin Toettoe