(iPoster) Fight for Values or Survival: Dynamic Evolution of National Identity in Conflict

• In Event: Poster Session: Security and the Politics of Military Cooperation

Abstract

Nationalism has long been recognized as a critical driver of interstate conflicts, attracting extensive scholarly attention. However, what precedes nationalism is national identity, which serves as the foundation of nationalism. Understanding how national identity forms and evolves remains an essential question. Existing research often assumes that external threats shape national consciousness but tends to treat national identity as a monolithic construct, overlooking its multifaceted nature. Furthermore, much of this literature neglects the internal dynamics of identity formation, which are shaped by a state’s interactions with other states in specific contexts.
Adopting the conventional division of national identity into civic and ethnic dimensions, this study proposes that interstate conflicts influence national identity through two distinct mechanisms: (1) the defense of values, which bolsters civic identity, and (2) the defense of survival, which strengthens ethnic identity. In conflicts involving states with opposing political systems, the “defense of values” mechanism is triggered, reinforcing civic identity. Meanwhile, in conflicts where the opposing state has a different ethnic population, the “defense of survival” mechanism is activated, heightening ethnic identity. However, when significant power imbalances exist, the “defense of survival” mechanism tends to dominate in the weaker state, shifting citizens’ focus towards the ethnic dimension. This leads to a change in conflicts between states with similar institutions or ethnicity. As a result, when citizens perceive the adversary as significantly more powerful, the positive relationship between institutional differences and civic identity will be weakened, while the positive relationship between different ethnic identities is further strengthened. However, if the two parties have a shared ethnicity, citizens perceiving themselves as the weaker side will have the shared ethnic identity weakened, driven by efforts to distance themselves from the adversary’s ethnic group to preserve their autonomy and cultural distinctiveness.
To test this theory, we propose a survey experiment in the United States and China. Respondents will be presented with vignettes describing hypothetical conflicts, wherein three factors—political institutions, ethnicity, and relative power—will be systematically manipulated.
This research bridges two traditionally separate areas of inquiry: the role of nationalism in conflicts and the formation of national identity. By reversing the conventional assumption that nationalism drives conflict, we instead examine how conflicts shape nationalism’s underlying source—national identity—in nuanced and multifaceted ways. Moving beyond the assumption that conflict produces a uniform nationalist response, this study highlights how different forms of national identity coexist and fluctuate in salience during international confrontations. Additionally, it probes underexplored dynamics of identity shift, which shows conflicts can not only reinforce existing identities but also erode them, fostering the emergence of new identity forms.

Authors

• Jianbing Li, University of Hong Kong

• Tianhong Yin, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign