(iPoster) Multi-Dimensional Power Linkages and Economic Development: A BRI Empirical Study

• In Event: Poster Session: International Political Economy I & Perspectives on Canadian Foreign Policy
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: International Political Economy I

Abstract

This paper investigates how the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), since its inception in 2013, has shaped economic outcomes in 149 participating countries through multi-dimensional external linkages spanning economic, political, security, and technological domains. It further explores how domestic political regimes and governance structures moderate these external inputs to either foster sustainable growth or perpetuate structural dependence. While most prior research has focused on isolated dimensions—such as infrastructure financing or trade flows—this study contends that overlooking “soft” elements like security cooperation, standards-setting, and political institutions neglects key mechanisms that account for countries’ divergent trajectories under the BRI framework.

Guided by an International Political Economy (IPE) perspective, the paper conceptualizes “multi-dimensional power linkages,” in which states are simultaneously influenced by trade, investment, diplomatic alliances, security partnerships, and technological collaborations. A multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) design is used to analyze panel data from 2013 to 2022 for 149 countries that have formally joined the BRI. To enhance causal inference, each nation’s treatment onset is identified when large-scale projects (exceeding USD 50 million) or AIIB financing meaningfully materialize, thus allowing us to track GDP growth changes in the years before and after the adoption point, rather than relying on single-point cross-sectional comparisons.

Empirical results show that economic and technological linkages exert immediate and relatively robust positive influences on GDP growth, whereas political and security linkages typically require a longer timeframe or deeper institutional support to produce significant outcomes. Moreover, differences in political regime types and institutional capacity play a decisive role in determining whether BRI-driven inflows yield enduring benefits. Countries with stronger governance, higher bureaucratic efficiency, and political stability can channel BRI projects into sustained industrial advancement and social welfare improvements. In contrast, states with weaker institutions or persistent conflict run greater risks of execution lags, resource misallocation, or heightened external vulnerability.

These findings contribute to the conference theme of “Reimagining Politics, Power, and People During Crises” by illustrating how states can harness external cooperation for rebuilding and modernization, provided that domestic institutions can effectively manage large-scale investments. Institutional and administrative infrastructure operates both as a catalyst and as a safeguard: without credible oversight, large-scale projects may intensify corruption or debt burdens, limiting developmental gains from foreign capital and technology transfers.

From a theoretical standpoint, this study offers three key contributions. First, it broadens classic dependency or interdependence theories by demonstrating how security, political, and technological factors interact with economic drivers. Second, it employs a multi-period DID approach, revealing how BRI-related impacts evolve over time and closely depend on local political contexts. Third, it confirms that institutional strength and political inclusivity are essential conditions distinguishing those states that leverage external linkages into long-term development from those that remain locked into short-term or fragile gains.

The policy implications go beyond infrastructure financing to emphasize governance enhancement, anti-corruption efforts, and proactive conflict mitigation. Policymakers can mitigate risk by reinforcing local institutional reforms alongside external capital inflows, ensuring transparency and inclusive participation. Furthermore, deeper collaboration in emerging technological spheres—such as digital infrastructure or cross-border R&D—promises long-term competitiveness if accompanied by robust administrative oversight.

In essence, this research clarifies how large-scale initiatives like the BRI can either propel inclusive, technology-driven development or, in the absence of supportive governance, yield fragmented implementation and uneven benefits. By incorporating economic, political, security, and technological dimensions into a unified empirical framework, it underscores the interplay of domestic political capacity and international power structures in shaping development paths. Hence, the findings bear broader relevance for political economy scholars, policymakers, and international practitioners interested in crisis-related contexts, collaborative strategies, and the evolving architecture of global governance.

Author

• Mengshuang Du, Safe Frontier Limited