(iPoster) US Immigration Policy Announcements and Human Mobility in Central America

• In Event: Poster Session: Immigration Politics in a Changing World & Middle East Section
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Immigration Politics in a Changing World

Abstract

In 2017, US Customs and Border Protection reported significantly lower apprehension numbers along the US-Mexico border, leading some commentators to surmise that President Donald Trump’s promises of stronger border enforcement deterred migrants from crossing irregularly into the United States. However, 2018 saw border apprehension numbers return to previous levels, suggesting that the “Trump Effect” had weakened in the face of the long-term economic, environmental, and humanitarian factors that are know to shape migrant flows. What is the effect of new destination state admissions policy announcements on migratory behavior and decision-making by migrants in transit? While researchers have focused on conditions and factors that attract migrants to certain destinations, less attention has been given to the influences that inspire people to return to their country of origin or otherwise alter their migratory plans. In this paper we leverage a novel survey of over 40,000 migrants actively in transit through Central America to test the effect of information about US border policies and procedures on migrants’ perceptions of origin conditions, destination conditions, and — ultimately — whether they would consider turning back or revising their preferred destination. We also consider other variables that have been hypothesized to condition migrants’ intention to repatriate in the future. A rare glimpse of people on the move, the results reveal the effect of policymaking at a pivotal juncture in the process of human mobility.

Authors

• Sanggyu Suh, George Mason University

• Justin Gest, George Mason University

• Lucas Nunez, George Mason University