(iPoster) China’s Neomercantilism and Authoritarian Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa

• In Event: Poster Session: Various Interesting Foreign Policy

Abstract

Since China’s emergence as a global economic powerhouse, trade between China and sub-Saharan African countries has expanded dramatically. Since the early 2000s, trade volume between these regions has surged by 26%, primarily driven by the export of natural resources to China and the import of Chinese manufactured goods. This growing economic engagement has sparked critical debates about the implications of China’s neo-mercantilist trade policies. Specifically, does this trade dynamic contribute to resource exploitation, hinder sustainable development, and reinforce authoritarian governance in sub-Saharan Africa?
The existing literature offers contrasting perspectives. The “pro-China” argument highlights mutual benefits, portraying China as a developmental partner fostering infrastructure projects and economic growth through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This view also contends that China’s involvement has limited impact on the longevity of authoritarian regimes. Conversely, the “anti-China” narrative characterizes China as a neo-colonial power, exploiting Africa’s natural resources to advance its geopolitical ambitions and strengthening authoritarian resilience in the region.
This study adopts an interdisciplinary approach, combining spatial network analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and case studies to investigate these debates. Sub-Saharan African countries are modeled as nodes within a trade network, with directional links representing trade volumes (exports and imports) with China from 2010 to 2023. Key network metrics – including centrality, density, and modularity – demonstrate China’s dominant and central role within the sub-Saharan African trade network. Non-recursive SEM is applied to assess causal relationships between China’s trade leverage, economic development, and authoritarian governance. Preliminary findings indicate a paradox: while countries more deeply integrated into trade with China experience notable economic development, they simultaneously exhibit greater authoritarian durability.
This research provides a nuanced understanding of China’s global economic strategy and its dual-edged impact on development and governance in sub-Saharan Africa. It advances the discourse on the broader consequences of China’s neo-mercantilist policies in shaping political and economic landscapes.

Authors

• Hye Ryeon Jang, Morehouse College

• Myles Ndiritu, Morehouse College

• Kyshan Jay Nichols-Smith, Duke University