(iPoster) Building Bridges or Barriers? Examining US-Turkish Military Training Ties

• In Event: Poster Session: Security and the Politics of Military Cooperation

Abstract

(1) Description
This paper explores Turkey’s participation in U.S. Foreign Military Training (FMT) programs, focusing on officer training at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) from 1950 to 2020. FMT is a cornerstone of U.S. foreign and security policy, designed to enhance military capacity, foster alliances, and promote democratic norms. However, recipient countries' attitudes toward FMT programs have received scant attention. This research addresses this gap by analyzing Turkey’s historical participation in U.S. FMT, highlighting how internal security concerns, geopolitical threats, and institutional factors influenced participation. Turkey’s dual role as a NATO ally and a strategic partner with ties to Western and Middle Eastern contexts provides valuable insights into the broader dynamics of bilateral military relationships.
(2) Data and Research Design
The study employs a unique dataset capturing Turkey’s participation in three major U.S. training programs—NPS, Professional Military Education (PME), and International Military Education and Training (IMET)—comprising over 3,500 Turkish military personnel trained in these programs from 1950 to 2020. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models, it evaluates how annual FMT enrollment rates are shaped by geopolitical events, domestic political changes, and institutional reforms. Key explanatory variables include external threats (e.g., regional conflicts), internal threats (e.g., clashes with the PKK), political regime type, government ideology, military interventions, educational policy reforms, and educational and professional backgrounds of senior military leaders. U.S. FMT programs are predominantly funded by the U.S. (Savage & Caverley 2017) and shaped by American foreign policy goals and resource allocation priorities (Joyce 2024). Therefore, I control for annual U.S. military assistance to Turkey for each model. Data sources include NPS graduation records, U.S. military assistance records, the Global Terrorism Database, and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and V-Dem datasets offering a comprehensive and multidimensional approach.
To complement the quantitative analysis and deepen the understanding of participation patterns, I aim to conduct interviews with retired senior Turkish military officers. These interviews will explore the decision-making processes behind participation, the perceived benefits of FMT programs, and the broader expectations countries have when engaging in such initiatives.
(3) Claims and Preliminary Findings
The findings reveal that Turkey’s participation in U.S. FMT programs is influenced more significantly by internal threats and institutional changes than by external geopolitical factors or domestic political variables. For example, conflicts with the PKK, identified as Turkey’s primary security threat since the 1980s, correlate strongly with increased FMT participation. Institutional reforms in Turkish military education, such as the introduction of graduate programs in the 1990s, also played a pivotal role in shaping engagement with academic training programs like NPS. In contrast, external threats, such as regional conflicts or disputes with neighboring states, had no statistically significant impact on participation rates. Similarly, domestic political factors, including regime type, level of democracy, and government ideology, have negligible effects, suggesting that military-to-military relations are largely insulated from political fluctuations.
The study also finds a positive relationship between military coups and PME participation, likely due to the need to rebuild leadership capacity following post-coup purges. However, such interventions had limited effects on IMET and NPS participation, as these programs primarily target junior and mid-grade officers. The 2016 failed coup, which led to the suspension of most FMT programs, is highlighted as an outlier, reflecting the unique dynamics of that event.
(4) Literature
Research on Foreign Military Training (FMT) has predominantly focused on evaluating the effectiveness and outcomes of these programs in achieving U.S. policy goals (Atkinson, 2006; Savage & Caverley, 2017; Grewal, 2022), and more recently, U.S. selection and funding priorities (Joyce et al., 2024). Scholars widely acknowledge that military aid often faces inefficiencies stemming from mismatched objectives between providers and recipients (Bapat, 2011; Sullivan et al., 2011; Ladwig, 2017). Despite this, the recipient country’s perspective—its motivations, expectations, and decision-making processes—remains significantly underexamined. By examining Turkey’s engagement, this research seeks to fill this critical gap and contribute to the growing body of literature on security assistance by examining the recipient country’s perspective, an area widely overlooked in favor of provider-centric analyses.

Author

• Ozgur Ozkan, Tufts University