(iPoster) Dissent without Opposition? Shifting Sentiments in the Hong Kong Legislature

• In Event: Poster Session: Legislative Studies & Politics in the American States
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Legislative Studies

Abstract

Most authoritarian regimes allow some level of dissent within its legislature. Scholars have theorized about the limits within which dissent is allowed, as well as potential benefits for regime stability by means of legitimation and co-optation. However, less work has been done on where dissent comes from. Does the balance between regime supporters and opponents in the legislature matter? The mass resignation of opposition legislators from Hong Kong’s legislature in November 2020 offers an extreme case to test this. I collect over 6,000 speeches made across three legislative years in the Hong Kong legislature before and after the opposition resignations and measure the sentiment of these speeches. I then fit a model to predict legislator identity - supporter or opponent - based on speeches made before the resignations. Comparing speeches made before and after the resignations, while the overall level of dissent unsurprisingly falls, I find that the model correctly predicts the identity of a legislator at a lower rate after the resignations than before the resignations. This suggests the possibility of regime-supporting members of the legislature mimicking opposition behavior, in order to preserve its legitimating function.

Author

• Brayden Pun, George Washington University