(iPoster) Weaponizing Migration: Domestic and International Conditions Enabling Coercion

• In Event: Poster Session: International Political Economy II

Abstract

What are the conditions under which an aggressor nation weaponizes migration flows against another nation? In recent years, several illiberal, weaker states—such as Turkey, Libya, Belarus, Morocco, Egypt, Mexico, and various Central American countries—have attempted to weaponize migration flows against advanced democracies, namely the United States and EU countries, to extract political or economic concessions. While some of these efforts have succeeded, others have failed. As the frequency of such weaponization efforts increases, scholarly attention on the use of migration flows as a foreign policy tool has grown over the past decade. However, existing literature is primarily focused on theory-building and on the successful cases of weaponization, leaving a gap in understanding the factors that enable or constrain these actions.
This project addresses this gap by proposing an analytical framework to identify the conditions that enable aggressor states to weaponize migration flows. It argues that domestic factors—such as legislative control, a strong economy and police infrastructure, and political will and motivation—are critical in shaping a state’s capacity to weaponize migration. Additionally, the international environment plays a significant enabling role, including financial and logistical support from illiberal blocs and ideological distancing from the target state.
Using a mixed-methods approach, this project combines qualitative data on domestic conditions—collected from official statistics and public opinion polls—with quantitative regression analyses of UN voting behavior to assess whether aggressor states align ideologically with illiberal blocs and distance themselves from target nations. A government with favorable domestic conditions—such as parliamentary control, a resilient economy, and a strong police apparatus— combined with international conditions like ideological distancing from target democracies and closer alignment with illiberal states, is hypothesized to weaponize migration flows against target nations. By providing a comprehensive framework for analyzing these efforts, this project contributes to the literature on the weaponization of migration and expands the understanding of the bargaining power of weaker states by introducing a new conceptual tool: “migration interdependence power.”

Author

• Baris Alan, Tulane University