(iPoster) Precision versus Imprecision or Offense versus Defense: That Is the Question!

• In Event: Poster Session: Conflict Processes 1

Abstract

This paper advances a theory of the Precision/Imprecision Balance embodying greater explanatory power than the venerable offensive/defensive balance. For decades scholars have debated the merits and attempted to measure the offensive/defensive balance, yet the literature contains little agreement and even less explanation of a key latent variable—precision. Lanchester and Hembold equations are the traditional starting points for quantitative assessments, with later dynamic models adding lethality and force structure to the analysis, yet the unclassified literature has not kept pace with the development of warfare and its various implements. This research attempts to refine the O/D model with the inclusion of precision in every domain of warfare as well as note the interactive effects precision brings to each domain. We create a Precision/Imprecision Model encompassing the traditional O/D model and variations while refining and focusing on empirically testable variables allowing a parsimonious, fair and rigorous assessment. The seminal variables: the ease of taking or holding territory and distinguishability between the offense and defense are muddled in modern multi-domain warfare. This work attempts to unpack a seminal theory and refine its meaning for the new era of multi domain warfare with variables reflecting the realities of modern warfare. This research engages the larger conflict processes literature by building upon a foundational theory by explicitly including precision and thus increased lethality aggregated across all domains of warfare.

Author

• Joseph J. St. Marie, University of Southern Mississippi