(iPoster) The Impact of Governing on Conflict Displaced Populations in the Middle East and North Africa

• In Event: Poster Session: New Perspectives in Political Science Research: Scholarship by Vanderbilt REU Students

Abstract

Over the past two decades, conflict and disaster have led to a significant rise in internally displaced persons (IDP) across the Middle East and North Africa. This paper investigates whether higher governance rating is associated with lower levels of internal displacement by conflict. With the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in these regions, it is increasingly important to adopt a more comprehensive approach to understanding the drivers of internal displacement. Focusing on Yemen, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Libya, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Sudan, South Sudan, and Iraq, I analyze IDP data from 2009 to 2023 alongside the Governance Index from the Quality of Government Dataset (Qog). Using both bivariate and multivariate linear regression, I first find that stronger governance correlates with fewer IDPs when examined in isolation. However, when controlling for other variables, the direction of the relationship shifts, showing that higher governance is associated with increased numbers of IDPs. These findings suggest that governance interacts with conflict dynamics in complex ways. While good governance alone may not eliminate displacement, it may influence how displacement is managed among other potential factors. Future research should explore how governance types, administrative capacity, and conflict exposure mediate or distort displacement data across the region.

Author

• Joshua Gaither, Vanderbilt University