(iPoster) The Spatial Variation in Communal Violence: Evidence from Iraq (2003-2009)

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Health Politics and Policy & Wartime Violence, Armed Actors, and Civilian Agency
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Wartime Violence, Armed Actors, and Civilian Agency

Abstract

Why does communal violence emerge and peak in some localities, but not others? While scholarly attention to communal violence has grown, limited attention has been devoted to the structural factors that shape where communal violence occurs and why it clusters in specific localities. This project explores how interface localities— where ethnic or sectarian communities of comparable size live in proximity— affect ethnic mobilization and violence. In doing so, this study investigates the determinants of variation in communal violence during the Iraqi Communal War (2003 -2009), aiming to explain why some districts experienced sustained and early violence while others remained relatively peaceful. Using a dataset of sectarian violence events during 2003-2009 across the country, I tested a set of demographic and spatial explanations. The findings reveal that communal violence emerges and peaks in districts characterized by high sectarian parity between Shia and Sunni groups. This suggests that localities where these groups were present in relatively equal numbers were more prone to conflict. Moreover, I argue that the effect of local group parity on intergroup communal violent escalation is most pronounced during periods of political shocks or transition, when uncertainty and fear generate local security dilemma. I then draw on case studies of three districts—Khadimiya, Al-Tarmiyah, and Muqdadiya, using secondary qualitative evidence, to examine the mechanisms through which ethnic identities are reinforced, activated, and mobilized in interface areas.

Author

• Unregistered Participant