(iPoster) Does Foreign Policy Convergence Matter in the Performance of Foreign Aid on Democracy? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Political Methodology & Foreign Policy I – Great Power Competition and Strategic Rivalry
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Foreign Policy I – Great Power Competition and Strategic Rivalry

Abstract

How does foreign policy alignment shape the democratic effects of foreign aid in Sub Saharan Africa? Existing research emphasizes donor conditionality, regime type, and institutional capacity, but pays far less attention to the international orientation of recipient states. This paper argues that foreign policy convergence with the United States conditions how aid from both the U.S. and China influences democratic outcomes. Using panel data from 43 Sub Saharan African countries (2000–2019), the study analyzes the relationship between aid flows and UNGA voting alignment with the U.S. through Driscoll Kraay fixed effects models and standard fixed effects for robustness. The results show that U.S. aid has a negative and significant association with democracy when convergence with the U.S. is low, an effect that weakens and reverses as alignment increases. Chinese aid similarly exhibits negative effects at low U.S. convergence but becomes positive once alignment crosses key thresholds. These findings demonstrate that foreign policy orientation is a critical conditioning variable, affecting the political environments in which external assistance operates and offering new evidence on how geopolitical alignment influences the democratic impact of aid in Africa.

Author

• Ernest Asamoa, Florida International University