(iPoster) Water Allocation and Social Unrest: Evidence from Chilean Water Rights

• In Event: Poster Session: Science, Technology, and Environmental Politics

Abstract

While existing research demonstrates that climate-driven reductions in water supply increase conflict, the role of rising water demand in reducing overall availability and fueling social discontent remains understudied. Human overdraft of freshwater for productive activities can deplete water endowments, leading to conflict between productive and domestic users. This paper examines how rising water demand and largely unrestrained water allocations in Chile drive disputes and protests. I combine geo-referenced surface and groundwater rights data for over 50,000 right-holders with yearly data on streamflows, water table depth, administrative and legal water disputes, and protest events. Using a spatial spillover design that exploits river flow directions, I find that a 10% increase in upstream groundwater allocations—equivalent to 0.7 m³/s or the water rights of the 50th-largest user—produces a net reduction in downstream streamflow of 0.3 m³/s and deepens water tables by 0.09-0.12 meters. This increase raises the probability of a water theft court case by 2.9 percentage points (pp) and generates 15% more filings of water-related administrative complaints. It further increases overall protest probability by 3.7 pp and results in 0.25 additional protest events per downstream municipality-year. These findings underscore the need for water allocation frameworks that promote efficient use while accounting for basin-wide hydrological and social impacts.

Author

• Magdalena Larreboure, Harvard University