(iPoster) Power of the SWordFish: Measuring Presidential Ideology from SOTU Addresses

• In Event: Poster Sessions: IR Theory; Experiments; Presidents and Executive Politics; & Political Cognition, Crisis, and Conflict Attitudes
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Presidents and Executive Politics

Abstract

Hamilton wrote that the President of the United States “holds the Sword of the community,” as core aspects of Presidential power are rooted in their ability to persuade and their relationships with others. Prior research on unilateral executive action has focused on institutional aspects of Presidential power, like executive orders, neglecting the extent to which public speeches embody a form of unilateral action from the President. Using the text analysis tool WordFish, this study analyzes public expressions of Presidential ideology through State of the Union Addresses from 1981 to 2024 to develop a SWordfish model that shows how Presidential ideology has evolved. Findings affirm prior research showing the President uses unilateral action more often in divided government, showing that Presidents tend to give more ideological SOTU Addresses when delivered to a Congress that has one branch controlled by each party. SWordfish results estimating ideology through speech provide more useful assessments of ideology than traditional methods using roll call voting behaviors, and distinguish how Presidents communicate their preferences to the public differently than they govern. Findings also show Donald Trump’s expressive ideology is quite liberal, in line with Presidents Biden and Obama, suggesting Trump’s ideology is difficult to measure using his words and could provide evidence signaling a new partisan realignment.

Author

• Charley Williams, The George Washington University