(iPoster) Opposition Performance and Patterns of Post-Election Protests in Autocracy

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Legislative Studies & Authoritarian Demands, Compliance, and the Politics of Protest
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Authoritarian Demands, Compliance, and the Politics of Protest

Abstract

Strong opposition performance in authoritarian elections can induce insider challenges through defection; this study asks whether it also increases immediate outsider challenge in the form of post-election protest. I argue that opposition performance functions as a mobilizing signal: it publicly indicates weaker regime control over electoral outcomes and a larger opposition support base, thereby shaping the conditions under which opposition mobilization becomes feasible. Accordingly, stronger opposition performance should raise the likelihood of post-election protest and, within protest waves, concentrate protest activity in opposition-held regions. Using existing cross-national data and a newly assembled dataset linking electoral returns to post-election protest at national and subnational levels, I find consistent evidence across multiple identification strategies and robustness checks that stronger opposition performance predicts both a higher probability of post-election protest and a more opposition-centered spatial pattern. These results underscore opposition performance as a key indicator for anticipating contentious dynamics and regime stability during authoritarian election cycles.

Author

• Unregistered Participant