(iPoster) Terrorists or Cartels: Shifts in FTO Designation during the Trump Administration

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Formal Political Theory & Foreign Policy II – Alliances, Coercion, and Foreign Policy Decision-Making
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Foreign Policy II – Alliances, Coercion, and Foreign Policy Decision-Making

Abstract

Since its introduction in 1997, the United States Foreign Terrorist Organization sanctions list has become an important element of American communication regarding its counter-terrorism agenda. Although the financial penalties imposed are unlikely to significantly impact sanctioned terrorist organizations, the placement of groups on the FTO list signals American counter-terrorism priorities to organizations, other countries, and the public. In this paper, I examine the factors that influence whether or not a terrorist organization was placed on the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list, utilizing survival analysis to evaluate how organizational traits influence sanctioning during different administrations. I find that prior to the election of Donald Trump in 2016, groups were more likely to be sanctioned if they attacked the United States or U.S. citizens, attacked American allies, or adhered to an Islamist/Jihadist ideology. During the first and second Trump administrations, the impact attacking American allies became less significant, while terrorist organizations involved in transnational criminal activities were more likely to be sanctioned. These findings demonstrate in real time how broad shifts in U.S. foreign policy have impacted specific counter-terrorism tools, as well as the varying nature of threat perception in U.S. counter-terrorism.

Author

• Jeremy Matthew Berkowitz, Prairie View A&M University