(iPoster) Policy Expectations: A Theory for Public Expectations of Policy Outcomes

• In Event: Poster Session: Public Opinion 2

Abstract

This project introduces and tests an original theory of policy expectations to explain political participation among U.S. adults. Departing from dominant approaches that emphasize political attitudes such as trust and efficacy, I reconceptualize political behavior as a response to forward-looking beliefs about expected policy outcomes. Policy expectations are defined as individuals’ beliefs about how future government action will affect them personally, formed through a cumulative, policy-based running tally of the benefits and burdens they have experienced. Because individuals face constraints on information and attention, lived experiences with policy benefits and burdens become a primary heuristic for evaluating likely future government performance. I argue that expected policy outcomes are the central driver of political participation. By centering expectations rather than attitudes, this framework links lived experiences with policy outcomes directly to political decision-making and offers a generalizable theory applicable across institutional and policy contexts. In this study, I introduce two original survey measures capturing expectations of future positive and negative policy effects. Using a national sample from the 2024 Collaborative Multiracial Post-election Survey (CMPS), I validate the measures and test their behavioral implications. I find that policy expectations are a central mechanism shaping political participation. My findings demonstrate that negative policy expectations are a robust and consistent predictor of political behavior across models, while positive policy expectations exert a more conditional influence.

Author

• Reginald Pulley, University of Maryland