(iPoster) Preferences in Migration Policy and Party Positions: The Case of Germany, 2009–2025

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Ideas, Knowledge, and Politics; European Politics and Society; & International History and Politics
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: European Politics and Society

Abstract

Germany, given its 20th century history, has long lacked a far-right political party in national politics. But this has changed over the last dozen years with the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). At the general election of 2025, the AfD gained a vote share of 20.8 per cent, making it the second largest party in the Bundestag. The role that migration and its regulation have played in this shift is the subject of both political and academic debate. This paper seeks to contribute to that discussion.

It is often argued in Germany that migration has been far less relevant to voters than public discourse would suggest. Giebler and Estermann (2025), for instance, describe a dysfunctional responsiveness of politics — or an "overrepresentation of migration-skeptical positions" — and support this analysis with opinion survey data on the relative importance of issues before and after the 2025 federal election.

This paper, however, takes a longer-term perspective and analyzes data from the German Long-Term Election Study (GLES) spanning from 2009 to 2025. It takes into account both voters' preferences regarding migration regulation and their perceived party positions on this issue. While some fluctuations in voter preferences over time can be observed, an absolute majority consistently supports more restrictive migration policies.

Yet, the parties represented in the Bundestag at the beginning of the 2010s have equally consistently advocated an easing of regulations or a continuation of the status quo rather than change — indicating a significant representation gap in favor of stricter policies. This situation only started to change after 2015, when the AfD (originally close to the CSU’s position on migration) clearly began advocating stricter migration restrictions, thereby entering a previously uncontested political space. This distinct positioning, the author argues, can help explain the party's electoral success in the three ensuing federal elections of 2017, 2021 and 2025.

Author

• Andreas Busch, University of Goettingen