(iPoster) Perceived Regime Change and Migration Decisions after Maduro’s Capture

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Abstract

The January 3, 2026 U.S. operation resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marks a sudden and externally driven disruption of an entrenched authoritarian regime. While the legality and geopolitical consequences of the operation have immediately entered public and scholarly debate, its implications for migrant decision-making are only beginning to emerge.

The Venezuelan diaspora, produced by years of authoritarian governance, economic collapse, and political repression, has largely framed migration as forced and long-term. The capture of Maduro disrupted this temporal horizon. Initial celebratory reactions among diaspora communities in the United States, Latin America and Europe suggested renewed hope for democratic change. Yet this optimism quickly gave way to uncertainty, particularly among migrants with pending asylum claims or precarious legal status. For these individuals, regime change is not only a political development but also a legal and migratory inflection point, potentially altering asylum eligibility, deportation risk, and the feasibility of return.

This paper examines how Venezuelan migrants interpret the capture of Maduro as a signal of political transition and how these perceptions shape their expectations regarding permanence, return, and legal protection abroad. Empirically, the paper addresses one central question: How does perceived regime change in the country of origin affect migrants’ expectations regarding return and legal protection in host states?

To answer this, the study draws on qualitative interviews with Venezuelan migrants in the United States, Mexico and Spain, combined with discourse analysis of diaspora reactions in the weeks following Maduro’s capture. Rather than assessing actual policy change, the paper emphasizes perception and anticipation as key mechanisms linking regime shifts to migration behavior.

By examining the early migratory consequences of an unexpected regime rupture, the paper shows how abrupt political change can destabilize migrant strategies even before institutional outcomes are clear. More broadly, it highlights how democracy under threat—and democracy in transition—produces new forms of vulnerability for displaced populations whose legal status depends on political conditions beyond their control.

Author

• Mary Carmen Peloche Barrera, Tecnológico de Monterrey