(iPoster) Beyond MAGA: A Segmentation of the Trump Coalition

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Polarization, Identity, and Democratic Vulnerability & Political Communication I
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Polarization, Identity, and Democratic Vulnerability

Abstract

A singular, monolithic profile dominates the national discourse on the Trump voter, but a segmentation of his base reveals Trump’s base to be more of a coalition. This coalition shares many common concerns, from immigration to progressive overreach to American decline. But it also contains groups with distinct identities, competing priorities, and clashing worldviews. What are the core values that differentiate these voters, and what binds them together despite their differences?

Results from a multi-wave mixed-methods study (N=18,371 via online panel surveys, focus groups, and interviews), including over 12,000 Trump voters, identify four distinct segments of the Trump coalition: MAGA Hardliners (29%), Mainline Republicans (30%), Anti-Woke Conservatives (21%), and the Reluctant Right (20%). A k-means segmentation was selected after empirical and conceptual evaluation of multiple clustering methods, revealing distinct attitudinal and identity-based patterns in the electorate. For example, findings show that while 74% of MAGA Hardliners view supporting Trump as an act of faith, only 14% of Anti-Woke Conservatives say their faith shapes their politics. Furthermore, while 73% of MAGA Hardliners support using the military for mass deportations, the Reluctant Right is more opposed to this policy (28% agree) than even Hispanic Trump voters.

Despite these internal fractures, the coalition is united by a shared sense of crisis within our institutions: 87% see the country at a breaking point due to issues like open borders and crime, and 84% feel respected by the President compared to only 21% who feel respected by Democratic politicians. Across our segments, an emergent "new traditionalism" among younger Trump voters reveals a willingness to bypass democratic norms, with 48% of Gen Z Trump voters supporting the President ignoring the Supreme Court to achieve his goals. These results suggest that durability of the Trump coalition depends on whether mutual grievances continue to outweigh fundamental disputes over democracy, religious pluralism, and many other values at the core of people’s identities.

Authors

• Unregistered Participant

• Samantha Evelyn Hasani, More in Common

• Ashley Fabrizio, Stanford University