(iPoster) Don’t Believe Everything You Read: Cognitive Warfare

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security I

Abstract

In the cognitive domain of modern conflict, names mean little, but perception means everything, and changing an enemy’s perception of the situation – either tactical or strategic – is of paramount importance.
This research explores the operational differences between two dominant frameworks: China’s "Three Warfares" (public opinion, psychological and legal warfare) and Russia’s "Reflexive Control." While both aim to "subdue the enemy without fighting," how do they exploit different institutional vulnerabilities? This work investigates why democratic societies are uniquely susceptible to these strategies and how artificial intelligence has moved these operations from "artisanal" campaigns to "mass-produced" cognitive threats.
This paper synthesizes Soviet-era Reflexive Control with modern Chinese cognitive operations. Russia’s Reflexive Control: targets the psychological level, utilizing disinformation to create "epistemic chaos" that forces adversaries to "voluntarily" make decisions favoring Russian interests. China’s Three Warfares: targets the social and legal levels, utilizing "lawfare" and media narratives to undermine the legitimacy of domestic and international institutions. This work introduces the "Cognitive Security Dilemma": a framework where a state’s defensive efforts to secure its information environment are weaponized by adversaries thereby creating and or accelerating the very polarization the state seeks to prevent.
This study employs Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to examine the relationships between cognitive warfare strategies, public perception, and security outcomes. This research seeks to unlock three primary Latent Variables: Institutional Cynicism, Epistemic Fragmentation and Perceived National Insecurity. Uncovering these variables will illuminate how cognitive warfare affects national stability. This research adds to the extant literature by quantifying how cognitive strategies can weaponize the openness of liberal societies by undermining democratic integrity.

Author

• Joseph J. St. Marie, University of Southern Mississippi