(iPoster) Unseating Autocrats: Candidate Selection and Opposition Breakthroughs in Turkish Metropolitan Mayoral Elections

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Candidates and Elections; Education Politics and Policy; & Creating Spaces for Civic Engagement
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Candidates and Elections

Abstract

How do opposition parties defeat ruling parties in subnational elections under competitive authoritarianism? Existing research emphasizes economic conditions and electoral coalitions for opposition success, while paying less attention to the candidates opposition parties recruit. This article argues that candidate selection is a key mechanism through which opposition parties convert electoral opportunities into local victories. Drawing on an original candidate-level dataset covering all metropolitan mayoral elections in Turkey between 2014 and 2024 (N = 342), I examine how candidate backgrounds shape both overall electoral success and opposition performance in districts defended by the ruling bloc. The findings show that while party affiliation and several candidate attributes explain success in the full sample, their influence largely disappears in defended districts. Instead, prior mayoral experience is the only credential that consistently improves challengers' chances of defeating regime-backed candidates. Opposition parties are therefore most successful when they nominate candidates with proven local executive experience.

Author

• Elif Sari Genc, Stanford University