(iPoster) Bangladesh’s Political Change and Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Frontiers in International Political Economy & Advanced Industrial Societies
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Frontiers in International Political Economy

Abstract

Bangladesh strategically positioned as a nodal hub between South and Southeast Asia, holds strategic importance for key regional and global players such as China, India, Japan, and the USA. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has notably expanded its influence in Bangladesh while Japan and India align with the USA-led Indo-Pacific strategy which is targeted in response to China’s BRI. As a middle power, Bangladesh strategically balanced the presence of major powers for a certain period. However, remarkable shift in the political regime in Bangladesh by monsoon revolution in 2024 changed the direction of its foreign policy resulting into geopolitical turbulence and realignment. While India, with historical ties and geographical proximity, played a critical role in trade, security, and regional stability, in the changed political landscape, Bangladesh-India relations deteriorated significantly. On the contrary, China took the opportunity to fill the gap and Bangladesh-China relations improved remarkably through various projects and agreements. Bangladesh is increasingly engaging with China on several fronts while its dealing with India is being limited. This is quite evident that Bangladesh is currently facing a geopolitical turbulence in dealing with major powers. This paper tries to investigate whether Bangladesh can navigate complex geopolitics and maintain strategic balance amidst great power competition. Using hedging theory as a conceptual framework, this study relies on data from secondary sources such as academic literature, policy reports, government statements, and media coverage. The paper argues that Bangladesh is more vulnerable now in the conflict-driven geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the intensified US-China and India-China rivalry. Adopting a nuanced hedging strategy, Bangladesh should maintain a position of neutrality and nonalignment through skillful diplomatic and economic engagements. Nevertheless, the article concludes that, imbalances in Bangladesh’s engagements with these key powers could bring potential security threats as well as economic losses. No matter, which political party in power, Bangladesh should leverage and remain on the balanced track without falling into the trap of geopolitics.

Author

• Ariful Haque, National University of Singapore