(iPoster) Green Mirage: Do Authoritarian Climate Projects Really Work?

• In Event: Poster Session: Science, Technology, and Environmental Politics

Abstract

Authoritarian regimes increasingly promote climate megaprojects as proof of competence—but do they yield real resilience? This paper compares Egypt’s New Delta and Saudi Arabia’s Salman Agriculture Project to test whether such initiatives improve environmental outcomes or mainly serve political display. A spatial difference-in-differences design using satellite NDVI data (2000–2025) measures pre-/post-changes in vegetation, water access, and land use against matched controls. Process tracing of implementation and discourse connects material performance to each regime’s legitimation strategy. Results show that high-capacity military regimes achieve significant environmental gains, while low-capacity monarchies produce symbolic outcomes. The study demonstrates that authoritarian climate governance is not merely technical but strategic—its success depends on institutional capacity and the narratives sustaining rule. By connecting remote-sensing evidence to political incentives, the paper distinguishes symbolic from substantive climate action and demonstrates how regime capacity conditions the material outcomes of authoritarian climate governance.

Author

• Cindy Ragab, American University