(iPoster) How Urban Structure Mitigates Social Conflict under Negative Economic Shocks

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Protest, Repression, and Democratic Erosion & Peacebuilding, Conflict Resolution, and Post-Conflict Politics
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Protest, Repression, and Democratic Erosion

Abstract

This study examines how urban structure moderates the effects of negative shocks on social conflict. Compared with armed conflict, social conflict is overwhelmingly concentrated in urban areas, yet cities vary substantially in their responses to adverse shocks. Existing research shows that natural disasters and sharp increases in food prices raise the risk of urban social unrest, but we know less about how urban structures condition these effects. Focusing on three dimensions of urban structure—building compactness, the availability and accessibility of public space, and the presence of state power–related facilities—we analyze how urban structural characteristics condition the effects of provincial-level flooding and rapid increases in urban food prices on two forms of social conflict including riots and violent demonstrations. The analysis draws on city–month and neighborhood–month dataset constructed from the GHS Urban Centre Database (GHS-UCDB) and level-6 H3 hexagonal grids. The results show that denser built environments, greater access to public space, and a stronger presence of state power–related facilities significantly mitigate the conflict-inducing effects of both flooding and food price shocks. These findings highlight the importance of urban structure in shaping the relationship between adverse shocks and urban social conflict.

Author

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