(iPoster) After the Uprising: Polarization and Democratic Rebuilding in Bangladesh

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Public Opinion 1 & Diverse Perspectives on South Asian Politics
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Diverse Perspectives on South Asian Politics

Abstract

Mass anti-establishment protest movements often mobilize around democratic promises such as accountability, rule of law, and an end to corruption. Yet many are followed by stalled reforms, renewed authoritarian practices, or intensified polarization. Why is democratic rebuilding so difficult after protest victories? Focusing on the July 2024 protest movement in Bangladesh and its aftermath, this paper suggests that standard explanations emphasizing institutional strengths or elite pacts are insufficient on their own to account for post-protest trajectories. Rather, protest moments may produce a legitimacy contest in which competing claims to authority- street legitimacy and electoral legitimacy-reshape political competition and increase the political costs of institutional reform, particularly as competitive elections approach.

The paper proposes a mechanism-based explanation linking three dynamics. First, protest coalitions often fracture once the incumbent threat recedes, producing fragmented reform agendas and contestation over who legitimately represents “the people.” Second, polarization shifts axis: rather than continuing along prior ideological divides, post-protest politics increasingly revolves around a legitimacy cleavage between pro- and anti-movement actors, rendering democratic procedures and institutions themselves contested symbols. Third, these dynamics are amplified by organizational and institutional asymmetries: uneven party system development and bureaucratic persistence across political cycles create powerful veto points that complicate institutional reform and increase the political costs of compromise.

Empirically, the paper employs a mixed-methods case study design combining process tracing with both mass-attitudinal and institutional indicators. It assesses long-run changes in mass support for democracy using World Values Survey data for Bangladesh in waves 4 and 7, focusing on principled democratic support, tolerance for non-democratic alternatives, and institutional confidence. It then conducts elite discourse analysis combining content analysis of political speeches and election manifestos to trace how key actors frame democracy, accountability, order, and legitimacy in the post-protest period and in election cycles. These patterns are triangulated through expert interviews and focus group discussions with protest participants, and contextualized using V-Dem indicators capturing shifts in democratic performance, polarization, and civic space. The paper contributes to debates on democratic resilience by showing how protest victories can generate new legitimacy conflicts and organizational constraints that complicate democratic rebuilding precisely when democratic openings appear most possible.

Author

• Unregistered Participant