(iPoster) An AI Assessment of Asymmetric Decision-Making Models: Partisan Patterns of U.S. Congressional Legislators on China (2017–2024)

• In Event: Poster Sessions: Political Methodology & Foreign Policy I – Great Power Competition and Strategic Rivalry
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Foreign Policy I – Great Power Competition and Strategic Rivalry

Abstract

It is widely believed that U.S.-China policy enjoys bipartisan consensus despite rising political polarization. This paper challenges that view. We argue that the two parties exhibit a significant “asymmetric decision-making” model in their legislative behavior toward China, rooted in their respective domestic social coalition structures and organizational logics. Using a comprehensive database covering 8,214 China-related bills and the legislative activities of over 2,000 members of the 115th–118th Congress, and employing AI-driven research methods, we propose three primary decision-making modes for legislators in China policymaking: international, professional, and domestic. We find that while China-related legislation trends toward professionalization, partisan differences persist. Democrats favor the “professional mode,” leveraging institutional channels such as congressional committees to coordinate diverse constituencies and interest coalitions, particularly in districts with high ethnic diversity and federal funding dependence. Republicans adopt the “domestic mode,” framing China policy issues around ideological competition and constituency economic interests (particularly sensitivity to trade shocks), reflecting their voter base’s ideological cohesion and preference for domestic mobilization. Fixed effects and multilevel regression analysis show that legislators’ choice of decision-making mode is closely linked to the demographic structure, industrial characteristics, and ideology. This study provides a new micro-behavioral foundation for understanding the domestic political roots of U.S. China policy and offers a unified analytical framework integrating party politics, legislative behavior, and foreign policy research, highlighting how domestic political structures shape national foreign strategy through the agency of elite decision-making.

Authors

• Kunya (Julie) Zhan, University of Pennsylvania

• Zhenyu Wang, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences