Restrictive Visa Policies and Visa Overstays: A Remedy or an Aggravator?

• In Event: Immigration Policy from the Local to the International Level

Abstract

Passports and visa requirements are a novel phenomenon in the context of global human mobility. Entry restrictions on foreign visitors are often justified in the name of security concerns and the fear of visitors becoming “illegal immigrants” through overstaying their visas. While there is extensive literature on the socioeconomic impacts of restrictive visa policies, such as reduced trade and limiting the tourism industry in destination states, not as much research has been conducted on the relationship between restrictive visa policies and one of their alleged objectives: reducing visa overstays and illegal migration. As such, this paper asks what is the causal relationship between the restrictive visa policies towards particular states and the portion of visitors from those states that overstay their visas. Through a comparative analysis of visitor visa statistics of the U.S. and the U.K., and by using two-way fixed effects panel analysis, this paper shows that more restrictive visa policies increase the proportion of travelers from restricted origins that overstay their visas. I argue that toughening travel through restrictive visa policies incentivizes travelers to remain in the destination country rather than returning to their originating states and risk not being able to travel back.

Author

• Farzin Shargh, SUNY, University at Albany