Escalation Ladder of Drones: Public Preference on Drone Deployment

• In Event: Drones in International Relations

Abstract

Drones (or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) are often considered a convenient and cost-effective means of deployment, valued for their agility. However, in contrast to the considerable attention given to the influence of emerging domains like nuclear weapons and cyber warfare on the escalation ladder, the role of drones as an emerging military technology in this context has received limited scrutiny. Existing research suggests that drones tend to be a relatively low escalatory option compared to other weapon systems. To address this gap, this study aims to provide a more nuanced understanding by categorizing drones based on their levels of aggressiveness. The central hypothesis posits that the levels of escalation from an adversary are more intense, the more general public prefers the deployment of aggressive drones. To test this hypothesis, a survey experiment will be conducted in South Korea and Taiwan, both of which face volatile dynamics on the escalation ladder due to direct and existential threats. Through this research, we aim to uncover and elucidate the intricate nuances of the escalation ladder concerning the use of drones, shedding light on their role in contemporary conflict scenarios.

Authors

• Sanghyun Han, Georgia Institute of Technology

• Hyunsu Kim, Seoul National University