Where Has Voting Behavior Nationalized? Evidence from Election Results and Surveys in Eleven Countries

• In Event: Next Steps in Studying Nationalization

Abstract

In recent decades, U.S. voting behavior has nationalized: vote choice in subnational elections increasingly reflects national allegiances. Such nationalization can undermine political accountability, with particular consequences in decentralized/federalist countries. But to understand the causes of nationalization, it is critical to study multiple democracies. We link subnational and national election returns in ten European and American democracies with varying levels of centralization. We then develop a novel measure of nationalization based on correlations in party support across governmental levels. In most countries, cross-level nationalization has been steady for decades, often at high levels. The nationalization of American voting behavior has reached comparably high levels, meaning that
America is no longer an outlier. Coupled with twelve surveys in eight overlapping countries, these findings challenge monocausal explanations of nationalization, including those emphasizing changing media markets. However, within countries, both lower subnational authority and broadband penetration are tentatively associated with heightened electoral nationalization.

Authors

• Daniel J. Hopkins, University of Pennsylvania

• Gall Sigler, University of Pennsylvania

• Frederik Hjorth, University of Copenhagen