Uncertain Shadows: Systemic Power Distribution and Rising Conflicts

• In Event: Perspectives on Political Science Challenges Lightning Round

Abstract

This study explores the role of power distribution in characterising the complexity of the international system, proposing a new perspective that links heightened entropy (introduced by Claude Shannon as a measure of information) in power structures to increased intrastate and interstate conflicts. Drawing from neoclassical realism, the research posits that as global power distribution becomes more uncertain and ambiguous (through a higher quantifiable Shannon entropy), local decision-makers find it challenging to formulate effective foreign policies aligned with international structural forces. This ambiguity, stemming from what we analogise as "entropy" in the system, can inadvertently propel states or players within the states into conflicts. Utilising data from the Correlates of War (CoW) and PRIO projects, the research empirically tests the hypothesis, revealing a compelling correlation between systemic power distributions and the emergence or intensification of conflicts. The findings underscore the need for a deeper understanding of power dynamics, suggesting that states must exercise heightened caution and strategic foresight in increasingly uncertain global landscapes to prevent unintended skirmishes and conflicts.

Author

• Mehrdad Khakparaghi, Eotvos Lorand University (ELTE)