Electoral Shifts and Migration: How US Presidents Influence Central Americans’ Emigration Plans

• In Event: Immigration Policy from the Local to the International Level

Abstract

How do political shifts in migration destinations affect emigration decisions in countries of origin? We examine this question by focusing on how the election of a new US president affects migration intentions and plans in Central America. We exploit the overlapping of fieldwork dates for the 2020 Latinobarometro and the 2016 LAPOP surveys in Central America with the American presidential elections held in those years. We estimate the short-run effects of Trump’s and Biden’s victories on migration intentions by comparing respondents who were asked about whether they plan to emigrate either before or after the announcement of the election results. We combine this evidence with a survey vignette experiment in Honduras asking respondents about their migration plans after being given a plausible scenario for the 2024 US presidential election: a Trump victory, a Biden victory, a generic Democrat victory or a generic Republican victory. We also probe potential causal mechanisms by asking respondents about changes in US immigration policies they believe will occur after the presidential election. Through both quasi-experiment and survey experiment, we explore the extent to which perceptions of receiving states’ politics affects migration decision-making.

Author

• Barry Maydom, Birkbeck College, University of London