Immigration Opinion and Information Environments: Media Messages and Opinion Formation, Change, and Crystallization

• In Event: Exploring Prejudice and Ideology in Refugee Policy

Abstract

U.S. Public opinion about immigration in the past forty years has evolved from a minor and localized issue with general bipartisan support to a major dividing line between the polarized parties. This paper evaluates these changes using framework of nascent opinion formation, change, and crystallization, and examines the role of media messages about immigration in these processes.

I analyze immigration opinion changes due to individual media exposure, news content and social context over 30 years. Trends in immigration opinion often have moved contrary to expectations – increasing opposition during economic growth (e.g., 1992-1994 . While mass opinion responded to some events (such as 9/11) and only briefly after international crises (post 9/11),and some political discourse (e.g., elite criticism in 1992-94 and 2016) this response was not consistent.

I develop a theoretical and empirical account of change by merging contextual data on local and national media coverage, local economic conditions and immigration flows, with individual-level data on political attitudes and media exposure. Data is drawn from the ANES cross-sectional data since the 1990s, and panel data from 1992-94, 2000-02-04, and 2008-09-10.

The analysis assesses the separate and joint impacts of these contextual and individual factors to test whether media impact is greater during periods of opinion formation, before crystallization, and theories about how the information environment mediates individuals’ response to changes in objective social and political conditions. Multilevel modeling and graphical representation evaluate the impact of these factors on opinion change during periods characterized by differing political events and informational environments.

Author

• Christopher Muste, University of Montana