Political Assassinations and their Impact on Incumbent Party Support in Japan

• In Event: Intersections between Public Opinion and Political Behavior

Abstract

What impact does a political assassination have on incumbent party support? While former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022 and the attempted murder of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on April 15, 2023 brought the topic into the public eye, little research exists on the political consequences events like there have on incumbent support. Indeed, the most thorough studies have focused on assassinations in the American context, which have suggested an outcome of both increased incumbent party support and feelings of nationalism after assassination. However, this was not the case in Japan, with the complete opposite effect in Shinzo Abe's case. Given that Japan is historically no stranger to political assassination, I adopt a qualitative case study approach investigating the causes and consequences of political assassinations on party support in Japan. I specifically analyze primary and secondary resources found at the National Diet Library in Tokyo and the Kansai-kan of the National Diet Library in Kyoto, as well as online accessible resources, to find patterns in pre- and post-political assassination events. I then compare these findings with public approval ratings for incumbent parties to derive inferences on their political impacts.

Author

• Lewis Alexander Luartz, Chapman University