Exposure and Expulsion: Modeling Local Determinants of Deportation in the United States

• In Event: 242 - Section on International Migration Roundtable Session (one-hour).
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 06. Immigration Enforcement

Abstract

Immigration context plays a prominent role in immigrant integration theories. Immigrant dispersal and a rise in immigration initiatives provide an analytical opportunity to test differences in local context. This paper advances work regarding where immigration provokes hostility by addressing the following: how do local factors account for variation in deportation outcomes in new and emerging immigrant destinations versus established destinations? A federal deportation program (“Secure communities”) operates in local jails across the nation. This paper links deportation data to indicators of immigration context and law enforcement. This paper predicts: (a) deportation rates adjusted for the size of local non-citizen populations; and (b) deportation relief (i.e., discretion following booking of removable non-citizens but before final removal). This paper also separately analyzes new, emerging, and established immigrant destinations. Specific factors expose non-citizen populations to deportation in particular types of places. Segregation (between Hispanic immigrants and U.S.-born whites) and immigrant influxes positively predict deportation rates, but only where in new and emerging immigrant destinations. Notably, established destinations (generally more ethnoracially diverse than other places) appear to help non-citizen populations stay under the radar. In these places, immigrant influxes dampen deportation rates and segregation boosts relief. The results suggest a conditional relationship between demographic sources of group threat and deportation. Moreover, Republican support and restrictive immigration measures boost deportation rates at two ends of the spectrum: new destinations and established immigrant gateways. Surprisingly, although local restrictive measures have their intended effect, corresponding efforts make little (e.g., anti-trafficking taskforces) or no (e.g., sanctuary designation) difference.

Author

• Juan Manuel Pedroza, Stanford University