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I analyze racial differences in the risk of the four major competing life events after high school: college enrollment, military service, long-term unemployment, and incarceration compared to employment in the labor market. They are racialized competing labor market institutions in that sizable populations experience them, which also yield different subsequent labor market conditions, and the selection processes into each institution are racialized, and they compete to absorb the labor forces in the labor market, but previous research focuses on only one or two of those events at a time rather than analyzing them altogether as competing events. I analyze individual level panel data (NSLY97) and examine the detail processes which lead to all four major events.
In terms of selection processes, the results show that the main reason why blacks are selected into undesirable institutions is due to their relative low school achievement. When controlling for school achievement, blacks are selected into the desirable institutions, college and the military, and the remaining blacks are selected into undesirable institutions, long-term unemployment and incarceration relative to employment. The selection processes are different across races as well. The positive selection to the military associated with school achievement is stronger for blacks than whites. In addition, better family resources help whites avoid the risk of undesirable events but they do not help for blacks. The results also show that the undesirable events experienced during high school continue to influence subsequent life events but the effects are different for blacks and whites.