Modernization as Moderator: A Multilevel Analysis of Global Support for Democracy

• In Event: 479 - Section on Global and Transnational Sociology Roundtable Session (one-hour).
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 13. Global Attitudes

Abstract

The revised form of modernization theory posits that increasing levels of individual income and education will lead to pre-democratic attitudinal changes and, subsequently, more democratic regimes. This paper uses hierarchical linear modeling techniques to simultaneously explore the relationship between individual educational attainment and income as well as the effects of national-level political and economic situation on pro-democracy attitudes, with a particular focus on Muslim-majority countries. Most broadly, we find that the effects of most other theoretically-relevant variables that predict support for democracy – including actually-existing democracy, educational attainment, individual income, and interpersonal trust – are moderated by national income. We also find that, although some evidence suggests that individual income and education have less of a pro-democracy effect in Muslim-majority countries than elsewhere, this effect is not robust to the inclusion of contextual-level measures of democracy and national income. Finally, the results of our models suggest that individuals in less developed Muslim-majority countries may be more supportive of democracy than individuals in other countries with similar levels of national income.

Authors

• Brandon Gorman, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

• Ijlal H. Naqvi, Singapore Management University