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Quotidian Disruptions, Social Influence, and Political Entrepreneurship: Evidence from India, 1954-2004

Sat, August 16, 4:30 to 5:30pm, TBA

Abstract

This paper develops and tests a theory of quotidian disruptions and political entrepreneurship. We argue that disruptions—such as abnormally low levels of rainfall—affect the subsistence routines of citizens and thus instigate them to collectively act and form political organizations to channel their demands. Our theory also incorporates two types of social influence—direct and indirect—that causes focal regions to experience high rates of founding when their neighbors experience disruptions, even when they do not. We test our predictions using a quasi-experimental research design. We exploit exogenous rainfall levels across time but within region to study political party founding in India between 1954 until 2004. Our results indicate that regions that experience below average rainfall do indeed experience higher rates of party founding. Further, we find evidence of social influence as well. When neighboring regions experience low levels of rainfall in prior periods, a focal region also experiences increased levels of de novo party founding.

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