The Influence of Internal Migration on Urban Exposure to Extreme Weather Events in Mexico

• In Event: 046 - Section on Environment and Technology Roundtable Session (one-hour).
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 09. Hazards and Disasters

Abstract

Between 2005 and 2010, 6.3 million migrants (approximately 6% of the population) moved domestically within Mexico, predominantly to urban locations. These shifts have potential implications for the exposure of populations to natural disasters. We ask: How have recent migratory patterns in Mexico influenced urban exposure to extreme weather events? To examine this question, we use census micro-data in conjunction with recorded data on natural disaster events. The populations exposed to extreme weather events are first calculated based on observed disasters and demographic change between 2005 and 2010. This is compared to a hypothetical scenario with no migration between 2005 and 2010 to identify the contribution of migration to exposure both in the aggregate and for specific municipalities within Mexico. The results demonstrate that, while migration has decreased overall exposure within Mexico, this influence is highly localized in select municipalities – especially of Mexico City and Monterrey.

Authors

• Daniel Runfola, University of Colorado-Boulder

• Patricia Romero-Lankao, National Center for Atmospheric Research

• Leiwen Jiang, National Center for Atmospheric Research

• Lori M. Hunter, University of Colorado-Boulder

• Raphael J Nawrotzki, University of Colorado-Boulder

• Landy Lizbeth Sanchez, University of Wisconsin-Madison