Turning Points in an Authoritarian Context: Theorizing Patterns of State-Movement Interactions

• In Event: 277 - Section on Collective Behavior and Social Movements Roundtable Session (one-hour).
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 13. Strategies and Tactics 1

Abstract

This study looks at three cases of urban communities in China which mobilized against garbage incinerator plants. These case studies indicate that the first reactions of local governments to the initial challenges by the protesters constitute crucial turning points which decide about the possible outcomes of the challenges. The challengers make the initial step - they test the water by choosing certain strategies. When they miscalculate, i.e. when they choose a strategy that is too radical to be perceived as acceptable by the local authorities, the costs in terms of repression can be quite important. At the same time, the protestors should not be too moderate either, because in that case they risk co-optation: a very moderate leader may easily be co-opted. It is the strategic reaction of the authorities to the first strategic set of the challengers, which determines how the interaction sequence subsequently unfolds. The key role of the leaders of the popular challenge is also demonstrated in all three cases: given the atomization of the individuals, the general lack of cooperation, and the great risks involved in mobilization, leaders are of key importance. In particular, the strategic choice of the first step by the challengers seems to depend a lot on the personality of the leader, and on his/her strategic calculations.

Author

• Jean Yen-chun Lin, University of Chicago