Pre-Election Mobilization and Electoral Outcome in Authoritarian Regimes

• In Event: 463 - Section on Collective Behavior and Social Movements Roundtables (one-hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 15. Political Parties and Social Movement Mobilization

Abstract

Increasingly, scholars are interested in the role of popular mobilization in studies of democratization, particularly around elections in autocratic countries. While existing scholarship argues for the effectiveness of post-election upheavals, the effects of pre-election protest are still theoretically and empirically understudied. I hypothesize that pre-election mobilization also matters for the electoral outcome. I present a theoretical framework that specifies different mechanisms, through which pre-election contention changes the balance of power in favor of the opposition. I present empirical support for the association between pre-election protest activities and opposition gain, incumbent defeat, and democratic transition with data on elections and protests in 191 elections across 65 non-democratic regimes. The findings of this analysis have important implications for studies of social movements, authoritarian politics, and democratization.

Author

• M. Ali Kadivar, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill