Abortion Access and State Variation in Measured Unintended Pregnancy

• In Event: 038 - Section on Sociology of Population Roundtables (one-hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 07. Abortion, Pregnancy and Childbearing Preferences

Abstract

State unintended pregnancy is an important social and public health indicator, and comparisons between states inform policy discussions. Unintended pregnancy is a composite of abortions and unintended births, each of which is measured with error. We investigate whether between-state differences in abortion access and acceptability may bias comparisons when pregnancy intentions are misreported. We specify the model currently used to estimate unintended pregnancy, extend it to include underreporting, and simulate the impact of underreporting on measured unintended pregnancy. Comparing the impact of underreporting across states, we identify levels of underreporting at which between-state comparisons are compromised. We find that underreporting of unintended pregnancies could bias between-state comparisons when reporting is less than 90-95%. Current methods for estimating state unintended pregnancy may underestimate unintended pregnancy to a greater degree in places with less abortion, and between-state comparisons may be biased. Estimates of state unintended pregnancy would be more comparable if correction for retrospective underreporting were included in the estimation process. Estimates of unintended pregnancy should be adjusted for non-sampling error and include variances based on sampling and non-sampling error. More research on the fidelity of retrospective reporting of pregnancy intention would facilitate this endeavor.

Authors

• Amanda Jean Stevenson, University of Texas

• Joseph E. Potter, University of Texas