Great Expectations After the Great Recession? Family Economic Shocks and Changing Educational Expectations

• In Event: 350 - Section on Sociology of Education Paper Session. The Changing Educational Landscape

Abstract

In this work, we examine how family economic shocks affect college expectations. We consider two important dimensions of college expectations. First we consider students’ and parents’ expectations to earn a BA and then we consider the route by which they plan to meet these expectations – directly to a 4-year college or through a 2-year institution first. We use the High School Longitudinal Study to analyze change in these expectations from 9th grade to 11th grade and consider the possible selection effects by examining propensity score models. We find that in the face of family financial crises, once-expectant high schoolers and their parents lowered their expectations to obtain a BA degree and altered their planned route for postsecondary education. Consistent with our hypotheses, the effect of family economic shocks on both degree and institution expectations differed by SES. Perhaps surprisingly, the expectations of middle-class students and parents proved more responsive to family economic shocks than did those of their lower SES counterparts. Our work has implications for pathways to educational attainment and the role of 2-year institutions.

Authors

• Linda Renzulli, University of Georgia

• Ashley Brooke Barr, State University of New York-Buffalo