Revisiting Measures of Childbearing Preferences – Discussion about Ideals, Desires and Expectations

• In Event: 038 - Section on Sociology of Population Roundtables (one-hour)
  In Refereed Roundtable: Table 07. Abortion, Pregnancy and Childbearing Preferences

Abstract

Three measures linked with family size preferences – an ideal, desired and expected number of children – are widely used in family studies, often interchangeably. Despite their popularity, some key questions about these measures remain unanswered. Firstly, what is the relationship between the ideals, desires and expectations about family size? Can these three variables be used as reflecting the same concept of preferred family size or should we draw a clear distinction between them? Secondly, little attention has been paid to a measurement error that could cause estimation bias in the analysis of family size preferences. There is a need to control for the statistical reliability of existing measures of family size preferences. In this study, the link between ideal, desired and expected number of children is revisited using structural equations approach. A measurement model is constructed using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth with a national representative sample of 12,686 respondents who were 14-22 years old in 1979. The analysis provides evidence that desires and expectations both measure the same concept of family size preferences. The ideal number of children is more related to general pro-natalist norms existing in the society than to personal family size choices and hence should be carefully treated as a reflection of family size preferences. In addition, the analysis reveals measurement error which decreases the reliability of the measures of family size preferences which calls for much more attention in accounting for imprecise measurement in the future family research.

Author

• Anna Rybinska, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill